In a phenomenon known as swing-mirroring, when the spin axes (the point around which thrown baseballs rotate) of two pitches are 180 degrees apart, the batter is prone to misidentify the direction of the spin entirely. But there’s reason to believe it could improve. To make matters worse, the curve has only gotten one whiff on 21 two-strike tosses. That’s better than the fastballs, but certainly not elite, or even better than the two-strike changeup. If hitters are expecting the change, and the fastballs won’t generate the requisite swing and a miss, why isn’t Brito turning to his curve more when he gets hitters on the defensive? On the whole, the deuce has netted six whiffs on 73 offerings, a rate of 8.2 percent. Hitters will expect a pitcher’s best offering on two strikes - even if they don’t throw it 45.8 percent of the time as Brito does in those situations - and if it isn’t elite, it won’t get punch-outs. His changeup has earned whiffs 18.7 percent of the time, which is above average, but that number dips to 13.3 percent when the count moves to two strikes. His fastballs - meant more for weak contact and to establish his secondaries - have just a combined 4.3 percent swinging-strike rate, but that’s to be expected. Alas, of the 130 pitchers with at least 300 tosses so far this season, Brito ranks 94th in swinging-strike rate, with whiffs on just 37 of his 366 offerings (10.1 percent). Thus, a swinging strike is the most surefire way to net a K. Called strikes do, but they are fickle, dependent on the whims of the umpire. Batters have also cracked 47 of Brito’s 131 two-strike pitches foul, and his 35.9 percent foul rate there is the highest among pitchers who’ve made at least 100 throws with two strikes.įoul balls obviously don’t do much for a pitcher on two strikes. Hitters have been making Brito work all season long: the rookie has allowed a total of 86 fouls on 366 pitches (23.5 percent), second only to the Nationals’ Trevor Williams (24.1 percent) among pitchers who’ve made at least 300 tosses. This wasn’t just a one-time occurrence, either. His 42.1 percent two-strike foul rate was the sixth-highest single-game total of the season (minimum 25 two-strike pitches), and his 35 percent overall foul rate was the highest (minimum 50 total pitches). But in the latter start, he could have fared a whole lot better with a legitimate out-pitch: Twins hitters fouled off 28 of Brito’s 80 pitches on the night, with 16 of those coming on just 38 two-strike pitches. We’ve seen what happens when the changeup command eludes Brito - that was the difference between his blowup against the Twins his first time against them and his ability to battle through 2.2 innings the next. The young righty’s changeup is excellent and his fastball is solid, but Andrés wrote that in order to succeed in the big leagues as essentially a two-pitch starting pitcher, you need both pitches to be top-notch or thrown with high accuracy. Yet, shortly after his second start, our Andrés Chávez predicted that Brito’s third pitch, an unpolished curveball, would be tantamount to his success going forward. Not only did he finish spring training with five perfect innings, but he allowed just one run over 10 frames in his first two regular season starts. The Yankees were patting themselves on the back for vaulting Jhony Brito into the fifth spot in their rotation to begin the season.
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